Mark Zuckerberg interviews one of the world’s top HIV/AIDS researchers, and director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. Dr. Anthony Fauci has helped steer the federal response to viral diseases like SARS, MERS, Ebola — and now COVID-19.
He talks about what we can all do to fight the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).
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Live with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US’s top infectious disease expert, to learn about what we can all do to fight the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19).Posted by Mark Zuckerberg on Thursday, March 19, 2020
About what phase we are in:
-US is still in the escalation phase
-Europe, France, Italy is epicenter now (whereas ie, China has come down in their peak)
-Projections in the US: Reach major peak & come down (if we leave virus to its own device)
For China it took them 2.5 mo to come down
Europe is in acceleration phase (likely 8 weeks until likely downward)
US: still in escalation phase (how high it gets & how long it takes to get around very much dependent on how successful we do containment & mitigation, ie: physical separations being asked of people)
At a minimum it will be several weeks.
Our response now can mitigate the situation
Question: Is it possible that 50% may be infected in the next year?
Answer: It depends on how well we mitigate. 50% may be a high number; if you do things doing now it can be less than 50%. Dr. Fauci feels he’d be surprised if it gets that high though.
10:56 What to expect in weeks and months ahead & how long to expect to be on high alert for?
A governor when he put out the suggestion, it meant after 15 days will see if there is any noticeable impact and see what goes on. Dr. Fauci feels it will go on for longer than 2 weeks.
11:57 What is the likelihood of another wave of this in the fall?
SARS had 8000 cases, 800 deaths. Public health measures suppressed it and disappeared. But Dr. Fauci is afraid this virus will be a little different, because it spreads too efficiency. Thinks what’s likely is once we suppress it, it is conceivable that likely when get to next season, we may see another blip of it but it will really be different because a certain % of population will
already have been immune (herd immunity) and will likely by that time have tested a number of drugs and hopefully some of them will be effective with treatment.
5:13 What do you think is important to know about shelter in place guidelines?
Self isolate for 15 days and see what happens is recommended for those who are at high risk for getting seriously ill and dying.
-*People young & healthy can get infected (ie, flu-but likely won’t need specific medical intervention).
-Don’t go to restaurants & bars
-Young people can be a vector to infect others (ie, elderly) even if infection not serious.
**But if you’re in a place where it has community spread, ie: WA, NY
then many should be thinking about possibility of hunkering down for awhile.
Who should for sure self-isolate for at least 15 days?
Elderly and those with underlying conditions such as heart disease, kidney disease, lung disease, diabetes, cancer, etc. more likely to get serious complications. Death & morbidity is a higher risk.
Question: As people come back to work and go back to offices again, what’s going to prevent it from flaring up again as people go back to way living before?
Answer: Will test that and watch China closely because they had a lockdown and there are less than handful of a few cases yesterday. Will watch closely what’s happening to China because they’re trying to get back to normal. If we see another blip in China, that will be ominous. That means that even though locking down there’s a chance there might be a rebound.
About testing & expanding capacity: (see 20:15)
Dept of defense will be putting a considerably larger # of ventilators avail in case strategic national stockpile isn’t enough.
Many millions of N-95 masks will be made available
2 navy ships are being mobilized-one being sent to NY area, in case overrun with lack of beds,
Will put regular people in beds in the ship & coronavirus people in regular hospital beds. Possibility that may be a problem.
Consider seriously hotel or universities for makeshift beds
Encourages hospitals to cancel elective surgical admissions.
About vaccine for coronavirus:
Vaccine may be available in a 1-1.5 years, depending on current Phase 1 clinical trial.
(even though it is expedited). Needs to go through safety and efficacy tests to see if it actually makes people better or worse.
Abut drugs for coronavirus:
Remdacivir is being looked at as anti-viral (didn’t work in Ebola as well as some of the other drugs, but it’s worth testing) to see if it can work
Hydroxychloroquine (cheap drug) – some indication in test tube there might be some activity. FDA is considering expanded use access for use off label.
If you test positive, when is it ok to interact with others?
If you test positive through nasal swab cultured tested,
Current gold standard safe guidelines:
Two negative tests 24 hrs apart
(so not shedding virus anymore)
Coronavirus doesn’t seem to have severe effects on children <9 yo.
Children don’t seem to get sick with this, but the question is do they get infected? Dr. Fauci predicts they do but they have such mild illness that you don’t notice they get infected or don’t show any symptom. Easiest way to find out is to do broad screening on children.
Are children carriers or does it run through them more like a common cold that when they’re done with it, they’re not spreading it?
Evidence in other situations (particularly evidence in China) indicates once you are infected, you resolve infection and resolve the virus and you are not infected anymore. Don’t anticipate where if kids get
(not formally proven, though but highly suggested it would be the case)
Can you be re-infected after you’ve gotten it?
It’s come to believe that once you’re infected, once you get exposed to this virus, you won’t get infected again.
(Chen’s notes: However, check out this article about what we still need to understand about reinfection: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/15/can-you-get-infected-by-coronavirus-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#2d9eee435c0f)
Young people will play a major role in this process–Dr. Fauci encourages they listen to physical separation recommendation.
Where to get coronavirus info:
CDC info for the public Coronavirus.gov
CDC info for health care professionals
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